Us demand for prefabricated housing to increase 15pc annually
US demand for prefabricated housing is predicted to increase as overall US property demand increases, according to Report Linker.
The research shows that the sector will benefit from the general market recovery, pushing demand up 15 per cent annually through 2017 to 135,000 units.
The US prefabricated housing industry encompasses a number of shelter products -- manufactured, modular, precut, and panelized housing -- that reduce the need for on-site construction. While the rebound in overall housing demand will boost demand for all prefabricated housing, the trends will differ for manufactured housing and other prefabricated types.
Manufactured housing's market share is projected to drop from that of the 2007- 2012 period as conventional mortgages become easier to obtain. Thus growth in manufactured housing demand will trail that of overall single-family housing demand. For other prefabricated housing, market shares will be little changed, and demand increases will be similar to that for single-family housing overall.
Over the past decade and a half, the fate of manufactured housing has differed markedly from that of the other prefabricated housing products. Manufactured housing suffered declines in demand almost every year for the past decade.
The decline actually began in the late 1990s, when manufacturing housing lenders increased approvals to subprime borrowers for low and no down payment loans. As the US economy cooled at the turn of the millennium, some of these borrowers defaulted on their loans, generating a rise in repossessed units, which then competed with new units.
From 2002 through 2006, the easy availability of mortgage credit led many potential purchasers of manufactured housing to opt instead for conventionally built units. The result was a declining market share for manufactured housing from 1998 through 2005.
The collapse of overall US housing demand from 2006 through 2009 further reduced the absolute demand for manufactured housing, but it also contributed to a slight rise in market share. As mortgage credit terms tightened and lenders were less willing to write loans for conventional housing, some households turned to manufactured housing, especially for smaller, single-section units. Other prefabricated housing types maintained a relatively steady market share over the 2002-2012 period, and as a result, the level of demand was related to overall US housing demand. As housing demand boomed, other prefabricated housing saw gains in unit demand. When housing demand collapsed, unit demand dropped as well.
Trade in prefabricated housing is minimal, and shipments will generally track domestic demand. Manufactured housing shipments are expected to reach $4.6 billion in 2017, a vast improvement from the 2012 level, but still below that in 2002. Through 2017, shipments of other prefabricated housing types are projected to rise to $3.0 billion. Advances will be fueled by rising unit growth after a period of depressed demand. Price increases will account for a significant portion of this growth, as increased raw materials prices and a shifting product mix raise the average cost of units produced.